Impacto dos Veículos Elétricos na Demanda por Petróleo
A eletrificação dos veículos está transformando o setor de combustíveis fósseis. De acordo com um relatório do banco Citi, a demanda global por petróleo está em declínio, em parte devido ao crescimento das vendas de carros elétricos e híbridos. Estima-se que até 2025 os veículos elétricos podem substituir até 500 mil barris/dia de petróleo.
Projeções para 2024 e 2025
A expectativa para 2024 é um crescimento mais moderado da demanda por petróleo, com um aumento de 1,3 milhão de barris/dia, bem abaixo dos 1,9 milhão de barris/dia registrados em 2023. O banco prevê que as vendas globais de veículos elétricos e híbridos devem chegar a 30 milhões de unidades até 2025, com o mercado emergente e a Europa liderando essa transição, enquanto os EUA apresentam crescimento mais lento.
Relação entre Economia e Demanda por Petróleo
As projeções do Citi indicam uma mudança nas relações históricas entre crescimento do PIB e aumento da demanda por petróleo. A transição energética, associada à eletrificação dos transportes e ganhos de eficiência, está alterando essa correlação.
Infraestrutura e Transição Energética
O banco ainda ressalta que, apesar dos desafios de infraestrutura de recarga, isso não será um impedimento significativo para a venda de veículos elétricos nos próximos anos. A transição para uma matriz energética mais sustentável já está em curso e deve continuar a afetar o mercado de petróleo.
Com a ascensão dos carros elétricos e híbridos, a demanda por combustíveis fósseis está começando a desacelerar, sinalizando um novo capítulo na transição energética global. As projeções para os próximos anos indicam que os veículos elétricos serão protagonistas nesse cenário de mudança.
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